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Landslide risk and climate change - economic assessment of consequenses in the Göta river valley
Swedish Geotechnical Institute.
Swedish Geotechnical Institute.
Swedish Geotechnical Institute.
2011 (English)In: Geotechnics of Hard Soils - Weak Rocks: Proceedings of the 15th European Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Athens, 12-15 September, 2011 / [ed] Anagnostopoulos, A, Pachakis, M, Tsatsanifos, C, Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2011, Vol. 3, p. 1313-1318Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

According to climate change scenarios, Swedish summers will be drier, but in large parts of Sweden there will also be increased annual precipitation, more intensive precipitation and periods with increased water flows. In many areas the risk for landslides is expected to increase accordingly. In response to this the Swedish Geotechnical Institute on the commission of the Swedish Environmental ministry has started a risk analysis for the Göta river valley. The results of the risk analysis will be used in the surveillance of the safety along the Göta river valley. The results can also serve as basis for land use planning of municipalities in the valley. The Göta river valley is one of the most frequent landslide valleys in Sweden. The area has a long history of anthropogenic activities such as settlements, shipping, harbours, industry, contaminated soil and infrastructure including large roads and railroads. A number of landslides occur every year. In general they are fairly small, shallow and caused by erosion. Larger landslides have also occurred in the river valley, with one or more mortalities. The landslide risk analysis of Göta river valley is performed by traditional technical risk analysis, i.e. the risk is a product of hazard probability and the consequences of the hazard. One part of the risk analysis of the Göta river valley is to achieve an increased knowledge of the coupling of climate change and the probability and potential extension of a landslide event. In parallel to hazard assessments the project takes on the challenge to identify, map and when possible assess consequences of potential landslides throughout the studied area. Elements at risk in the valley include human life, transport (shipping, road and rail road) and other infrastructure, residential and other properties, industrial activities, contaminated land, agriculture and forestry, and intangibles such as biodiversity. Exposure, vulnerability and the monetary value related to the landslide are used to estimate the consequence of the landslide. This paper shows the process and structure of this consequence analysis for natural hazards by presenting suggestions on how to describe, quantify, value and visualise these widely different consequences. The consequence analysis methodology can be applied generic both nationally and internationally and for several types of natural hazards such as landslides and flooding.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2011. Vol. 3, p. 1313-1318
Keywords [en]
Landslide, Error, Economics, Costs, GIS, Risk assessment, Climate change, Sweden, Conference, Athens, 2011, English
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:swedgeo:diva-855DOI: 10.3233/978-1-60750-801-4-1313Local ID: 000074041OAI: oai:DiVA.org:swedgeo-855DiVA, id: diva2:1362851
Conference
15th European Conference on Soil mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Athens, 12-15 September, 2011
Available from: 2019-10-21 Created: 2019-10-21 Last updated: 2019-10-22

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